Predictions

This coming Major League Soccer season is one that, on the surface, looks rather predictable. Everyone seems to be buying into this notion that the LA Galaxy have formed a "super team" and will just destroy the league. Even with the injuries, international call-ups, Olympics, etc. people are touting them as untouchable. I'm not buying it.

With the reintroduction of an unbalanced schedule, the Western Conference looking like the much superior side, international call-ups for world qualifiers, Olympics, etc. this MLS season will be intriguing. Which teams can handle the mass of games, not only in MLS play, but USOC and CCL will be the determining factor. As always, injuries can make or break a team (see RSL and Dallas last season) but great coaches prepare for the worst and hope for the best. As such, those teams that have strong proven leadership are what will succeed this season. It's not anything new, per say, but I believe the separation will be evident early on and that some teams will simply get left in the dust.

Predicted Final Conference Standings
Western Conference
1. Real Salt Lake

 - Yeah, I'm a homer, but not one without cause. Look at this RSL team. It's stacked. The first 11, when healthy (key point), can compete with anyone. Even this vaulted unbeatable LA Galaxy team. Fabian Espindola had a bit of a coming out party last year. This year, he's only going to get better. Javier Morales, while still recovering from that nasty ankle injury, is poised to last all season and in the preseason looked to be the same old Javi. Jamison Olave, Nat Borchers, Nick Rimando, Kyle Beckerman, etc etc. This is a team that, honestly, competes at every position with the rest of the league for best player. However, it's not just the individual talent that has me sipping the RSL juice, it's the chemistry and leadership of the squad. Jason Kreis gets the best out of his players, Kyle Beckerman is the best holding mid in the league and probably one of the best captains in the league. This team is built to win. Most importantly, though, is that they won't be dealing with CCL knockout stages early on this season. USOC and CCL play will happen later on, but by that time RSL will be in full healthy (fingers crossed) and full form.

2. Seattle Sounders
 - If there was one team I had to pick that I think would challenge RSL this season, it's Seattle. For whatever reason, our games with them have always featured a lot of drama. Sigi Schmid, despite the "figure", builds greats teams and  this Seattle team is no exception. Rosales is my early pick for MVP of the league and players like Montero and Fernandez are top class. The one area that will hold them up this season, I believe, is goalkeeper. Losing Keller, even with his blunder issues, was a main part of their success over past years. Without him, they'll give up soft goals (no entering keepers ever have amazing first seasons) and lose ground. Add their early CCL match up with Santos and that they play on turf (aggravates injuries) and they'll come short. They'll be a damn good team, but they'll come up short.

3. FC Dallas
 - I have no idea why, but a lot of people are selling on Dallas this year. People throw around Vancouver and Portland higher than them and I simply don't get it. Brek Shea, even if he is gone for the Olympics, will cause havoc again all season. They return their star in Ferreira and have talent on all parts of the pitch. They'll be damn good. Not great, but pretty damn good.

4. LA Galaxy
 - If I could, I'd rate these guys last. However, I have to be honest. They have a lot of offensive talent on this team. In this league, though, that typically means it comes at a cost. And it shows itself in the defense. Yeah, the Gonzalez injury really is the biggest knock, but they have zero depth, especially on the back line. I think the long season will wear on them. Donovan, Beckham, and Keane will all be great but I just don't see how they can stop other teams from scoring on them like they did in the past two seasons.

5. Portland Timbers
 - I'm not high on this team for one gigantic reason: sophomore slump potential. They have it written all over them. They came out last season and, by expansion standards, had a pretty good season. Everyone is thinking they can only go up. The problem, though, is that they are not a new commodity. There is film on the team. There are proven tactics to beat them. I think they'll slide into the playoffs (5 from each conference this season) but they'll not do much more.

6. San Jose Earthquakes
 - I'm not a big fan of Frank Yallop, in fact I think he has ruined the 'quakes quite a bit. However, looking at the additions he's made this season I think they are really going to improve. They'll challenge Portland for that last Western Conference playoff spot but ultimately come short. I also think Wondo will have a much more quite season this year. No competing for the golden boot.

7. Vancouver Whitecaps
 - Like LA, they've stacked up on offensive talent. Their defense? yikes. I think they'll improve (couldn't get much worse) but they'll still be off the playoffs.

8. cRapids
 - Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on these guys, but its more than obvious they are in a transitional stage. The new manager wants to change the identity of the team from counters on the wings to possession. This is going to take time. They'll probably be a lot better than I have them listed here, but I really want them to be bad.

9. Chivas USA
 - They should be better, but they won't be. Chivas Guadalajara is the reason to blame. This supposed partnership doesn't operate even close to what it could/should. I feel bad for Robin Fraser, he has the skills to make a great manager. I just don't see it happening at this particular club, though.

Eastern Conference
1. Chicago Fire

 - A lot of people are low on Chicago. They think they'll make the playoffs, but not really do much. I think this team is built to cause havoc. Add that to the fact that they'll play a much heavier Eastern Conference schedule and this team could really turn heads. The biggest thing I see in this team is their speed. They showed at the end of last season that speed, when used correctly, will cause problems against any team, no matter their tactics. They've added the right pieces around Pappa, have Oduro and Nyarko, and a defense that isn't stellar but can get the job done. This is my surprise team of the season.

2. Sporting Kansas City
 - Sporting really made a strong push at the end of last season. They looked destined to make a similar run to the 2009 RSL MLS Champions. It fell short, but they laid the foundation for a really good future. They are young, and because so I think they'll continue to struggle this year, but they still will be a side to fear. With their setup (no CCL, playing in the East, etc) I also think they are built to be really good in the playoffs.

3. Toronto FC
 - I'm likely too high on this team but whatever. They showed flashes last season of a team that really could compete with anyone in this league. I want them to be good because that fan base up there is really fun when they are into the games. I think they are built to finally make the playoffs and, if the draw goes there way (read hosting warm weather teams) then they could really make a run.

4. Houston Dynamo
 -  This team is hard to figure out. They are going to have a season much like Kansas City did last year with a heavy road schedule to open things before getting their own place and having a load of home games. I think Brad Davis will continue to be a force to reckon with and that their style (physical) will reward them in close games.

5. New York Red Bulls
 - New York has loads of talent. Everyone knows this. Putting that talent together, though, looks to be rather difficult. I think they'll be better than they were last year, but really will struggle to make the playoffs again. I see them sliding in then possibly making some noise, but overall having another disappointing season compared to what their expectations are.

6. DC United
 - I want Ben Olsen to be successful and, honestly, they could be a lot better than I have them listed. However, I just don't see it. I think DeRo will be the life and blood of this team, once again, but that it will ultimately fall short. I am probably way off on this one, but it's just my gut reaction.

7. Philadelphia Union
 - I have no idea where to put this team. I had them as high as 2 or 3 in this conference and then they were right there with Montreal at the bottom the next. It's just too hard to figure them out. I think they'll really struggle. Trading LeToux, even with the contract issues, was stupid in my opinion. I expect the East, especially spots 3-8, to be really tight, but someone has to finish at the bottom.

8. New England Revolution
 - I want to put this team higher but I can't justify it. My whole argument for pushing them up was results in the preseason tournament against LA, New York, and RSL. However, the preseason has constantly proven itself to be a horrible gauge (at least when using results as the basis). I see talent on the team, and I see them being really good in two or three years, but not this year. It's a new group of coaches that need to learn on the job. That typically doesn't produce stellar results.

9. Columbus Crew
 - I see them struggling this year, a lot. They have decent talent on the field, but I think the core group is too old and that they'll burn out as the season progresses. It's time for Columbus to clean house and go into transition. Maybe they'll start that this season.

10. Montreal Impact
 - They are an expansion team, what more can be expected? They have some decent pieces on the team, but building chemistry takes a whole lot longer than the time they've been allotted. They'll be 10 times better at the end of the season than they are at the start, I guarantee that.


Trophy Predictions
US Open Cup: Seattle Sounders

 - They'll buy... I mean win it again. Good for them. Nobody really seems to care.

CONCACAF Champions League: Santos Laguna

 - I think LA will find a way past TFC but fall, like Seattle, to Santos and that Santos will win the whole thing. I see them playing either Monterrey or Morelia in the final. Like last year, I expect MLS to do a push of LA/Seattle saying we, as MLS fans, should support them. In response to that idea I give a big middle finger. I don't want those teams to succeed where we faltered!


Supporters Shield: Chicago Fire

 - Playing in the East will be the determining factor. They won't be better than RSL, Seattle, or even LA on the field, but because they get to play a team like Montreal three times as opposed to RSL/Seattle/LA only playing them once they will succeed.


MLS Cup: no idea
 - This all hinges on form right before the tournament. All you have to do this season is finish in the top five of your own conference to make the playoffs. Ten teams will have a shot at it (yeah, more than half...) If I had to pick, I'd go with Sporting. They don't have CCL on their plate and I seriously doubt they take USOC seriously. If they can't win the SS, I expect them to make a run in the playoffs. Playing on the eastern side, like in the regular season, will benefit them greatly.


Wrap it up
 - I really think this is going to be a really fun MLS season. I see the East really benefiting from this new setup and that the West, also because of the setup, will simply bang itself up throughout the season and not be able to walk away with the two big trophies.

Can't wait for the season to start. Just six days away!

FORZA RSL!

Cheers,

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